The Chicago Cubs are quietly trying to creep back into contention. Because they haven’t rattled off a long winning streak, it’s been easy to miss. But they are playing better baseball of late and with two against the Chicago White Sox this weekend, it’s possible they can get to just one game under .500 for the first time since June 6. But making the playoffs remains a long shot. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs have a 6.7 percent chance of making the postseason. With teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres starting to play better, too, sneaking into a wild-card spot is looking tougher than it was a few weeks ago.
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For those reasons, along with the fact they played pretty poor baseball for nearly three months, most of the questions in this mailbag are focused on the future. Fans aren’t blind. They can enjoy this nice stretch of play while also understanding that October baseball in 2024 for this Cubs team still doesn’t feel realistic.
Let’s get to the questions. As always, they’re edited for length and clarity.
At what point does Jed Hoyer’s seat start getting hot? He’s been here 13 years, has just three deep playoff runs with one World Series (with a core that was then wasted) on his resume and is now in his second rebuild. — Bob V.
Winning a World Series shouldn’t be something that’s just brushed away. It was a huge accomplishment. But it wasn’t just Hoyer’s, of course. Theo Epstein was the president of that team. He was the final decision-maker in building that roster. He gets most of the credit there and should also get most of the blame for what he left Hoyer when the latter took over in the winter of 2020. That’s how it works, fair or not.
For that reason, I’m not going to count this as Hoyer’s second rebuild. Even if he won’t call it that, we can see that it was exactly that: a rebuild. But I digress. Let’s take a look at the moves Hoyer has actually made. When he took over, he traded Yu Darvish largely for prospects and non-tendered Kyle Schwarber. Even though the Darvish trade did net them a top prospect in Owen Caissie, neither move can be spun as positive, particularly letting Schwarber go for nothing.
What one could say is that Hoyer’s hand was forced by ownership that was looking to pare expenses in the middle of a pandemic. Should they have been doing that? That’s up for debate. But Hoyer had little choice in these matters. He had to reduce payroll and this is how he did so. In general, Hoyer hasn’t been awful with the moves he’s made since then. He got solid prospects — not all have panned out yet — in his 2021 and 2022 deadline sell-offs.
One could argue that he should have been more aggressive in moving Willson Contreras since it was clear they weren’t going to re-sign him. But Jaxon Wiggins, the player they selected with the draft pick they got for losing Contreras in free agency, is turning out to be a pretty valuable prospect. The signings of Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga have been strong, as has the trade for Michael Busch. Jameson Taillon has turned into a rotation stalwart, and one has to like the creativity and aggressiveness in the decision to trade for Isaac Paredes.
Adding Cody Bellinger before the 2023 season worked out wonderfully, and even if he isn’t playing at the same level, Hoyer was able to bring him back for this season at a pretty reasonable cost. The jury is still out on whether the Dansby Swanson deal was good or not. One strong year and one that has so far been worse than expected — though the defense has consistently been brilliant. The poor additions, like Tucker Barnhart and Trey Mancini, haven’t been the type that sink a payroll.
It feels like his biggest mistakes have been the moves he hasn’t made. He probably should have shored up the bullpen more over the past couple of offseasons — losing Jeremiah Estrada for nothing should be put in the bad column, as well. Adding a superstar bat is something he still needs to do. The former is easier to rectify, the latter not so much. It’s just hard to find that bat, which makes it all the more important to act when they’re available.
There are quite a few positives from Hoyer’s first three-plus seasons on the job, but ultimately, he has to be judged on the wins and losses. Even if one is being generous and just looking at the past two seasons, it hasn’t been good enough. So yes, Hoyer is on the hot seat. There’s no denying that. This season has been disappointing, and if they’re not contending next summer, it likely means Hoyer will be out of a job. It hasn’t been a disaster, but it also isn’t what fans deserve: regular contention for the postseason and hopefully more than that.
How likely is it that Cody Bellinger picks up his player option? Any chance the Cubs extend him? Do the Cubs see having him and Busch as middle-of-the-order bats or would they seek to add another one? — Werner G.
Do you believe the Cubs will continue to operate with the tax threshold as a pseudo salary cap? This free-agency class seems relatively strong, but if Bellinger opts in and Héctor Neris’ option converts (both seem likely), they don’t figure to have a ton of room to play with. — Joseph F.
Cody Bellinger has a $27.5 million player option for next season. (Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)
Team sources have continued to say the first tax threshold is not a major consideration. It would probably be foolish to barely go over for this season, but unlike last summer, it was not something that was discussed when the Cubs were making moves at the deadline. They probably do need a good finish to justify to ownership that it’s worth investing in this team and that this is not a 70-win roster.
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It shouldn’t be assumed that Neris’ option will convert. He’s at 42 appearances, so he needs 18 more in 45 games. That would mean he’d appear in 40 percent of their games, which is pretty heavy usage. If they’re in contention, sure, that may happen. Otherwise, I’d assume they’d find a way to avoid it.
As far as Bellinger, whether he opts in is up in the air. He has a 109 wRC+ after posting a 134 wRC+ last season. If he matched last season, it was a slam dunk that he’d opt out. Where he’s at now? It’s probably borderline, leaning toward opting in. If he starts slugging a bit more and ends up at around 120 wRC+ for the season, the bet here is that he opts out.
I see no reason for the Cubs to try and extend Bellinger. They have multiple outfield prospects they’d like to get a look at, and right now he’s their fifth-best bat by wRC+ behind Suzuki, Busch, Paredes and Ian Happ. If he opts in, it wouldn’t be a bad thing. They can always use a lefty hitter who can play multiple positions and has an above-average offensive profile. But Bellinger opting out certainly would give them more flexibility this winter with how much they can spend and what they can do with the roster.
I love many of the position player prospects the Cubs have accumulated. But, the reality is that many of them will not have a place to play in Chicago for a few years. Why not go after some top-tier major-league talent by combining prospects with current players? — Bryan D.
Using prospects and pairing them with players on the MLB roster to get established talent makes a lot of sense. The questions are, who are you getting and why is the team you’re trading with willing to give that player up for whatever package is being offered?
This type of move probably shouldn’t be done unless it nets an impactful bat. Who could that be? Would the White Sox move Luis Robert Jr. to the North Side and is he even worth the injury risk? Speaking of injury risk, is pursuing Mike Trout a worthwhile endeavor? The money commitment and lack of availability probably make that a no-go. Does Toronto shift gears, go with a more aggressive sell and move Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Seems unlikely, but probably the most plausible of these suggestions.
It’s hard to know how these things shake out. Hoyer has to be alert, aggressive and opportunistic. Just like he was when acquiring Busch and Paredes. Hoyer also can’t only look to acquire a bat in a move like this. Maybe a front-line starter makes sense or a top-tier reliever and/or an above-average catcher. But he should absolutely be thinking of ways to use his farm system beyond just calling up players to help the team.
What realistic additions could be made to bolster the offense? I’ve resigned myself to assuming the only open spots are DH, catcher and bench. Are there any circ*mstances under which Jed might add a star, or is the plan to triple down on this group and hope they outperform their projections? — John D.
These next 45 games will give us more information on this offensive group and adding Paredes definitely makes it feel more balanced while also stabilizing the defense. But whether this offense gets red hot or not down the stretch shouldn’t change the fact Hoyer has to upgrade in some areas. It’s going to be hard to find a star bat, as has already been discussed.
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But here’s a must that may be pretty hard, as well: Get a catcher you can trust who will put up league-average offensive numbers, at minimum. They can’t assume Miguel Amaya will do that even if he has a strong final two months. The bench needs to improve, as well, that’s for sure. They can’t have three sub-.600 OPS performers in the 7-8-9 spots.
One reason for hope is Swanson starting to come out of his funk and his expected numbers as a whole providing some optimism that this season won’t be the norm. One can never assume that it will go smoothly for a player who will turn 31 in February, but he’s had some rough luck — along with just poor performance, yes — that’s helped contribute to his 85 wRC+. If he’s at his expected numbers (which would have him in the 115 wRC+ range) next year, that would be a huge boost to this group.
Add in a catcher and more depth, and perhaps this offense can bounce back to at least its 2023 levels, if not better. Of course, adding a superstar bat should be the primary goal. It would solve so many of the issues and provide a little more certainty and security around all of this.
(Top photo of Craig Counsell and Jed Hoyer: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Sahadev Sharma is a staff writer for The Athletic and covers the Chicago Cubs. Previously, Sahadev was a national baseball writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Chicago. Follow Sahadev on Twitter @sahadevsharma
