2024 Olympic Games Previews: 3-Way Battle of the Century Shaping Up in the Women's 400 Free (2024)

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
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• Olympic Swimming Entries as of July 12th

WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 3:55.38 – Ariarne Titmus, AUS (2023)
• World Junior Record: 3:56.08 – Summer McIntosh, CAN (2023)
• Olympic Record: 3:56.46 – Katie Ledecky, USA (2016)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: 3:56.69 – Ariarne Titmus, AUS

In what is slated to be a match for the ages, the last three world record holders in the women’s 400 freestyle will go head-to-head in Paris with Olympic gold on the line.

The Big Three: Titmus, McIntosh, and Ledecky

Australian Ariarne Titmus, Canadian Summer McIntosh, and American Katie Ledecky need little introduction. The three swimmers have consistently topped every Olympic and World Championship podium throughout this quad, trading-off the world record on several occasions. Currently, Titmus holds the record with her 3:55.38 from the 2023 World Championships. However, given the depth in this race, that record seems bound to fall in Paris. The only question that remains is: Who will be the one to break it?

Ledecky is the oldest of the three swimmers at 27-years-old and by far the most experienced, having competed at the 2012, 2016, and 2021 Olympic Games. The American’s storied career falls nothing short of incredible with her dominance across the distance freestyle events almost being unparalleled. Since first breaking out onto the swimming scene in 2012, Ledecky has broken 16 World Records and won numerous Olympic and World Championship gold medals. In fact, from 2012 through 2016, she was nearly considered unbeatable across the 200, 400, 800, and 1500 freestyle. At the 2016 Olympic Games, Ledecky won the 400 freestyle in a time of 3:56.46, finishing nearly 2 seconds under her own world record pace and 5 seconds ahead of the field.

However, Ledecky was soon challenged by Titmus, the rapidly-rising Australian star. They had their first match-up at the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships, where Ledecky held off Titmus with a final time of 3:58.50, with Titmus touching only a second behind 3:59.66. Then, at the 2019 World Championships, Titmus posted a shocking victory over Ledecky, surpassing Ledecky over the final 50 meters of the race to claim first in a new Australian record of 3:58.76, becoming the 2nd fastest performer in history in the process. Soon after, viewers learned that Ledecky was hospitalized due to illness at the meet, causing her to scratch from the 1500 and 200 freestyle.

Following the delay of the 2020 Olympic Games to 2021, fans were eager to see a rematch between Titmus and Ledecky. Early in the 2021 season, Titmus was throwing down near-career best times. Then, she hit a personal best and Australian record of 3:56.90 at the Australian Olympic Trials meet to scare Ledecky’s world record. Ledecky, meanwhile, wasn’t competing often due to COVID-19 restrictions in the US, she had only been as fast as 4:01.27 at the US Olympic Trials meet prior to Tokyo.

While the world was focused on the Ledecky and Titmus match-up, Summer McIntosh was quickly establishing herself as a threat in Canada. Only 14-years-old at the time, McIntosh threw down a 4:05.13 in the event at a local championship meet only a few months shy of the Olympic Games. She then qualified to represent Canada at the Games via top performances at the Canadian Olympic Trials, setting herself up as a dark horse come Tokyo.

Through the prelims in Tokyo, Titmus and Ledecky easily claimed spots into the final, with McIntosh lowering her Canadian record to a 4:02.72 to finish 5th. In the final, it was the battle of two races as Ledecky charged out ahead of the field, with Titmus right on her feet. Just like in 2019, Titmus charged home over the final 50 meters to gain a second lead over Ledecky, touching first in a time of 3:56.69, just off of Ledecky’s World and Olympic Records. Ledecky settled for silver with a 3:57.36, her fastest time in 5 years, while McIntosh finished a surprising 4th with another new Canadian Record (4:02.42).

Less than a year later, Titmus finally managed to get under Ledecky’s world record, hitting a blazing 3:56.40 at the 2022 Australian Championships. Titmus opted out of the 2022 World Championships, deciding to focus on the Commonwealth Games instead. That left Ledecky to claim gold, with McIntosh dropping a huge 3:59.39 for silver, becoming only the fourth woman in history to go under 4:00 in the event.

McIntosh then had another breakthrough in early 2023, dropping a monster time of 3:56.08 to shatter Titmus’ world record at Canadian Trials, establishing herself as the early World Championship favorite. At Worlds, Titmus took back her record, becoming the first swimmer to break the 3:56-barrier in the process with a 3:55.38. Ledecky hit a 3:58.73 for silver and McIntosh once-again settled for 4th place, citing it as a “learning experience”.

Since then, Titmus has only extended her dominance over this event, hitting a time of 3:55.44 at the Australian Olympic Trials earlier this year to lead the world rankings. She also set a world record in the 200 freestyle at the same meet, showing herself in top form before Paris. Ledecky also appears to be on form, as she currently stands second in the world rankings heading into Paris with her winning time of 3:58.35 from the US Trials meet. That time stands nearly 3 seconds faster than she went in 2021. McIntosh ranks 3rd in the world currently after winning Canadian Trials in a 3:59.06.

Regardless of the outcome, these three swimmers are bound to set themselves up for an incredible race. However, there are still other swimmers looking to disrupt the podium.

Upset Favorites

Chinese distance star Li Bingjie has consistently been amongst the top freestylers in the world. Though she is yet to win an individual World Championship or Olympic gold medal, Bingjie has found herself on almost every 400 freestyle podium, holding bronze medals from the 2017 World Championships, 2021 Olympic Games, and 2022 World Championships. She also claimed a silver medal in the event at the 2024 World Championships. With such a loaded resume, Bingjie has proven that she can get the job done when it matters most. However, she has not hit her best time of 4:01.08 since 2021 and even then, it stands as being significantly slower than Ledecky, Titmus, and McIntosh’s best times. At the 2024 World Championships, Bingjie swam a time of 4:01.62 in the final, establishing herself as the 5th fastest swimmer in the world this season.

New Zealand has a rising star in Erika Fairweather, the 2024 World Champion in this race. After setting the New Zealand Swimming Record in this event in Tokyo, she lowered it at the 2023 World Championships, swimming to a bronze medal finish in a time of 3:59.59 to finish behind only Titmus and Ledecky. In the process, she became one of the only women to ever break 4:00 in the event, establishing herself amongst the greatest of all time. She later lowered that record to a 3:59.44 en route to a gold medal at the 2024 World Championships, becoming New Zealand’s first gold medalist in the event. Fairweather is still young and has shown tons of improvement over the last 12-months, prior to early 2023, her best time stood at a 4:02.28 from the Tokyo Olympics. She has since lowered that multiple times to claim her first international medals.

A Wild Battle to Final

With the 400 freestyle being one of the longer races on the Olympic slate, you might not expect the field to be as tightly bunched as it currently is. However, with such a close field combined with the unpredictable nature of this event, there are plenty of other players who could easily find themselves in the final.

The United States could see multiple swimmers make the final in this race with Paige Madden set to race this event as well. Madden, who represented the US at the 2021 Olympic Games, made a splash at the US Trials meet, qualifying for the team in the 4×200 freestyle relay, 400 freestyle, and 800 freestyle. After not qualifying for any US international rosters post-2021, Madden’s performance at Trials marked a huge comeback for her. At Trials, she posted a personal best of 4:02.08 in the 400 freestyle to claim the second spot on the US roster behind Ledecky, which currently ranks her 7th in the world this season.

Brazil could also see two finalists in this race with the duo of Maria Fernanda Costa and Gabrielle Roncatto ranked 9th and 11th in the world this season, respectively. Both swimmers posted personal best times at the 2024 World Championships, with Costa swimming a time of 4:02.86 and Roncatto swimming a 4:04.18.

German Isabel Gose threw down a lifetime best of 4:02.39 at the 2024 World Championships en route to a bronze medal finish. Gose’s time currently ranks her 8th in the world this season. She also posted a 4:03.18 to win the London International in late May, showing great form ahead of Paris.

Notable Absences

This race will be hit with some notable absences on the entry lists. Despite finishing second to Titmus in this event at the Australian Olympic Trials meet, young star Lani Pallister will not be contesting the event in Paris. Pallister’s season best time of 4:01.75 ranks her 6th in the world this season. Instead, third place finisher Jamie Perkins will race the event alongside Titmus in Paris, holding a season best of 4:04.38.

Another top name who is not on the entry sheets is Barbora Seemanova, who appears to be focusing her efforts on the 100/200 freestyle instead. The star from the Czech Republic recently set a new National record in the 400 freestyle with the 4:03.41 she threw down at the AP London Invitational in May, ranking her 10th in the world this year.

The Verdict

It’s going to be a battle of three different races, with Ledecky’s opening speed, Titmus’ closing speed, and McIntosh’s consistency. However, I think that Titmus has been the most consistent performer of the trio over the past year and she looks primed to repeat in Paris. While McIntosh’s youth gives her an advantage over Ledecky, she has been slightly inconsistent at larger meets in this event. Thus, I’m giving the edge for silver to Ledecky, though I think it could easily go either way.

SwimSwam’s Picks:

Darkhorse Pick – Simona Quadarella (Italy) – Known primarily as a 800 and 1500 freestyle swimmer, Quadarella also extends her range down to the 400 on occasion. This year, her fastest time is a 4:06.43 from the Settecolli Trophy in late June. However, she has been as fast as 4:03.35 back in 2018. If she hits her taper right, Quadarella could find herself right on the cut for the final.